Hello and welcome to the Fourth Wheel’s weekly news bulletin. A lovely mixed bag this week with news from the business desk, the breaking news team and the department of opinion and analysis. Remarkably, they all sound like the same guy.
Anyway, yes: I could not allow the moment to pass without having my two cents on Morgan Stanley vs Swatch Group, the most corporate of beefs we’re likely to see in 2026. I also report on the watch world’s arrival on the prediction market scene, courtesy of a partnership between pre-owned marketplace and analytics platform Bezel and specialists Kalshi.
Prediction markets interest me for how closely they are skirting the definition of gambling - in the USA they are regulated like financial instruments, by the CFTC, but in the UK the Gambling Commission has said that although it is not for them to comment on the legality in other jurisdictions, “if a prediction market operator was to launch in Great Britain we do not believe they would be able to classify themselves as non-gambling products.” Diplomatically put. But I bet you’ve all been eagerly awaiting the chance to spice up the pre-Watches & Wonders Rolex speculation with a little flutter - you can now gamble on whether we’ll get a new GMT, or if the Pepsi will be discontinued. Interesting times.
The lead news is a new chronograph from Ming, a non-limited leftie monopusher with a muted palette and that lovely Polymesh bracelet. I also run the rule over three very different new watches: IWC’s blacked-out Portugieser Chronograph, Norqain’s Adventure and the Raymond Weil Millesime Tuxedo.
This week also brings an ignominious end to my unbroken run of ‘new indie watch brand launches’, as I couldn’t find news of a new indie that had launched in the last seven days. Ignominious because I also have to admit last week’s was a bogus entry - Annalise Dunselman launched her brand last year and I totally missed it. We regret the error, as the newspapers say. I’m sure I’ll be able to make up for it in the next few weeks.
Links discussed in today’s episode:
Thanks for listening. I’ll see you back here next week for more.
Chris
